Soybeans
Last time, I was changing the bullet point above into Neutral as the market had seemingly established itself between the Medium MA (currently 1013) and the Long MA (currently 999). I did not realise how powerful was the initial Key Reversal Down on the 2 9 t h of May...or more likely how much it was the final straw that broke the camel's back as two days after writing we had another KR Down and this time it was below the Long MA. We then fell rapidly, reaching a Double Top Target 'X' ( 910) I'd labelled during the past month and the fall and only seeming to halt as we arrived at the 50% Absolute Fib at 895 (thank you Tom DeMark). However, a week last Monday we had a fresh KR Down as it became obvious that even the Absolute Fib was not strong enough to hold it up.
This was followed by yet another KR Down last Friday and we are now on the lows at 847...testing them again. In the meantime we've had a number of Bearish Dead Crosses on the MAs and you can see that it has been one heavy move down. We are now resting on the 2015 low but we've even longer term lows at 837 (2009) and 779 (2008) below the market.
There is no indication that this market wishes to turn around yet. Consequently, you'd need to look out for those levels. Topside, the 50% Fib of this move is at 951, that would be the minimum you'd need to achieve to alleviate the Bearish situation. However, I'm minded to say get above at least the 2018 50% Fib at 965 and ideally the Long MA. With all this, the bullet point above must obviously go to fully Bearish.
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