Soybeans: Trend Down?
Last year I was not sure of which way the market would go. I left the bullet point in Neutral at that time and added as commentary '...at the moment we are within a wide range made by the support 844 %. - 898 and the declining resistance offered by the Downtrend...a situation that moves more towards neutral as time carries on.'. That is what happened; we stayed within the range indicated with notable features in Jan of an Outside Day that was Neutral, a test to the Absolute Fib at 898 in Jun and tests of the Downtrend (currently 961) towards the end of the year...none convincing.
As Neutrality carried on, the range narrowed between the support and the resistance till this past month. We are close to a cusp with the apex being reached when both support and resistance cross later this coming 2018. As we get closer you can see that the market is being moved to make a decision in one or other direction and as yet it is not wholly committed. However, maybe Dec's action could help in this - we've a Key Reversal Down on the Monthly Chart above, the first KR since early 2016 (that one led to the 2016 rally!). I'm not saying that this is the way...yet. However, I am convinced enough in the absence of other patterns and signals that I ought to move the bullet point above into mildly Bearish. This is enough for the moment as it is obvious that the market does not wish to move out of Neutral (I can't emphasise this enough) and it may have some false starts and false breaks...so just be cautious. However, the time for change may be approaching.
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