The confidence among German companies, as measured by the Ifo index, unexpectedly improved in March. It was the first rise in the Ifo index in seven months, which is good news, especially given the dramatic fall in the German manufacturing PMI last Friday.
The gap between the Ifo index and the manufacturing PMI again seems to be the result of the uncertainty surrounding global trade, to which the latter indicator is more sensitive. In addition, Non-Manufacturing indices around the globe look much better, suggesting that a recession is not imminent. That said, the odds of a recession have increased in recent weeks, making me a bit more cautious on risky assets.