EUR/USD
Against unclear signals for sentiment in EUR/USD for this week, and with muted trading, yesterday saw some selling interest develop. This move lower was enough to take EUR/USD through the 13 day avg, but only test the upper end of the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
This price action does not provide clear signals for sentiment going into today but the tone is still assessed as mildly negative. In view of this, our call is Bearish but also to Sell a Rally to 1.3812.
The risk is 1.3833 with an immediate target of 1.3776 then 1.3760 and 1.3737, Marabuzo line and low from Apr 8th.
The risk is that selling pressure is weaker than currently assessed – signalled above 1.3833, yesterday's high, targeting 1.3865, last Thursday’s peak.
EUR/GBP
Against a background of bearish signals for EUR/GBP sentiment for this week, yesterday saw EUR/GBP sold at lower levels for a 6th day in a row. This confirms the break of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and a correction of 76% of this year’s rise.
Of course, the muted nature of the market means signals for sentiment cannot be strong. But with the underlying tone marked by a declining Keltner channel and likely rallies capped by the 13 day average, we look for lower levels.
So, our call is Bearish but to leave room to Sell a Rally to .8223. The risk is .8238 with an immediate target of .8191. A move through that point should see the market then focusing on .8174 then .8158, this year’s base.
GBP/CHF
This week’s signals for GBP/CHF are bullish and these are so far being confirmed. Monday’s trading posted a 6th higher daily low & high in a row for a gain of 35 pips on the day.
A sequence of lower monthly highs has been marginally ended and prices are trading above their 100 & 200 day averages, which is positive for sentiment. With no sign yet of demand ending, the outlook for Tuesday remains bullish above a stop loss at 1.4823, yesterday’s low. Targets are to 1.4895, 1.4940 and 1.4978, February’s high trade.
FTSE
FTSE 100 sentiment has been trading predominantly sideways since October from close to last year’s 14 year high at 6861.5. But a bearish daily Shooting Star at April’s high and from close to the 50,100 & 200 day average rates has left signals in each of the last 2 weeks pointing lower.
These have been confirmed with a 200 Pt sell-off, but buyers returned to the market last week from close to last month’s base at 6445.5, sentiment rallying by 150 Pts from the 6452.0 low.
Despite the bounce, signals aren’t strong and a small trend of lower weekly highs remains intact and prices remain at their key averages.
So, although they have changed to a bullish bias, the call for this week is to cautiously buy on the open and at 6550.0, with a stop loss at 6500.0, Wednesday’s low. Targets are to 6635.0/53.5, this month’s high trades, 6700.0, the 5 week top and then towards 6804.5, last month’s high.