A rising BTI (sentiment indicator) is bullish and there was always a chance this indicator would turn up as the rally in the FTSE 100 is still underway. This is not ideal if you are a bear, but as it happened last week the BTI can turn up for a day or two and then it's down again. We'll wait and see before turning bullish. We are at or near a turning point based on the wave count, the other factor is seasonal influence which is positive so there is potential for the rally to extend this week.
But upside is limited in the US. The S&P 500 has gone up in a straight line, the index is near an important resistance line. Friday's nonfarm payrolls was slightly below analysts forecasts and the unemployment rate fell to a six-year low. It would appear that the nonfarm payrolls report had a positive effect on investors but despite the positive report the rally looks like a counter trend move and not an impulse wave.
One thing to remember, it is always preferable to go long at the start of the rally rather than near the end. The start of the rally was after the correction during the third week of October. The rally has now retraced more than 61.8% of the decline so we are no longer near the start of the rally. A second wave can retrace more than 61.8%, but given the sharpness of the rally in the US chances are the rally is either over or there will be a significant pullback before it continues. Either way a decline will come.