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Political Uncertainty - Impact On Sterling And Single Currency

Published 30/04/2017, 17:38

After another decent week for the pound, the main focus was on Saturday when the EU were to hold their very first "Brexit Summit". The results of this were not too surprising as EU leaders unanimously agreed (after only 60 seconds) tough negotiations with the UK, including demands for Britain to agree on payments to the bloc before even considering a new trade deal, and guarantees for rights of EU citizens in the UK.

I am sure this was anything but music to the British Prime Ministers ears, alongside Donald Trump back peddling on his promises to the UK and now prioritising a trade deal with the EU before anyone else! (Who knew... politicians backtracking on their own words?!)

Staying with UK politics, it seems that the UK media are completely underestimating the support for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn, as new polls are now suggesting that the Tories lead has now been slashed by over 10 points due to more support for Mr Corbyn. Though all these opinion polls (as we all know are about as reliable as a flat tyre!) still have the Tories winning this election, it seems that their lead is narrowing week by week. So far the market deems a Tory win as a positive, and the opposite for a Labour win, but I must point out that though the media is convinced the Tories will win, nothing is certain with these events (as we have seen plenty of times over the last year). So please do not put all of your eggs in one basket and rely upon this election to boost the pound, as it could very easily go the other way!

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Now onto the final round of the French elections, on May 7th we will see the French public go out and vote for either Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen...the effects are pretty clear: a Macron win will strengthen the euro, and a Le Pen victory will do the exact opposite. Right now Macron looks like the favourite so for those of you who are looking to purchase euros, it seems that after Sunday the euro could strengthen again if Macron wins. However, similar to my point with the UK elections, nothing here is a guarantee, Le Pen could still win enough support over the next week to edge a victory.

All in all, politics will be controlling the next week on the market,

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