Newsquawk Week Ahead; Highlights include US jobs report, ISM; OPEC+ meetings; PMIs

NOTE: Previews are listed in day-order

BOJ SUMMARY OF OPINIONS (MON): The BoJ Summary of Opinions (SOO) will give a timelier view than the minutes into the board members’ thinking. To recap, at the prior meeting, the central bank left its policy settings unchanged as expected. The Bank also extended the pandemic relief programme by six months beyond the September deadline (in line with sources), with the decision on YCC made by seven votes. Board member Kataoka dissented, and Masai abstained as her term is nearing its end. The release is not expected to impact the JPY or broader markets.

CHINA OFFICIAL PMI (WED): In May, China's official PMI data was boosted by holiday spending during Golden Week holidays, despite the month being shortened. However, the forward-looking new orders component, as well as new export orders, declined. After that May PMI data, ING said it would be looking closely in the June data to see if risks are emerging -- like the continuation of chip shortages, higher commodity prices, as well as COVID emergences in the factory regions of China; yuan policy was also a factor the bank said it was monitoring.

EZ FLASH CPI (WED): Consensus looks for a flash print of 1.9% (prev. 2.0%) for Y/Y CPI in June with the core metric seen at 0.9% (prev. 1.0%). After rising to 2.0% in May amid energy base effects from 2020, headline inflation is seen cooling a touch as some of the Y/Y support begins to wane. That said, it is worth noting that any scaling back in inflation is expected to be a short-lived phenomenon as factors such as last year's German VAT reduction provide support for the headline. Ahead of the release, RBC are paying attention to whether or not the recovery in core inflation continues into June as service-based sectors of the Eurozone economy reopen. The Canadian bank is of the view that core inflation will remain muted until labour market slack has been fully absorbed. From a policy perspective, the aforementioned developments would be broadly inline with expectations at the ECB and therefore would be unlikely to shift the dial in Frankfurt should they materialise.

CANADA GDP (WED): Canadian bank RBC is forecasting GDP will have declined by 0.6% M/M in April, a slightly better view than StatsCan's nowcast of -0.8%. Since last month, RBC says developments have been positive, with the jobs report noting increased hours, while wholesale trade data was also encouraging. Offsetting that was weaker retail trade and manufacturing conditions. Accordingly, RBC thinks the May nowcast will be flat. "Early indicators for manufacturing and wholesale trade both registered gains around 1%, the former being the bigger surprise, while retail was in the expected range at -3.2%," RBC says; it sees Q2 Canadian growth at around +2% annualised, and argues that the strong pick-up in June activity will likely drive an acceleration in Q3, where RBC has projected growth of +9% annualised.

JMMC/OPEC+ MEETING (WED/THU): The JMMC meeting on the 30th of June will be followed by the OPEC+ confab on the 1st of July, where production quotas will be set from at least August. Sources suggested the group is mulling a further easing of curbs, although the specifics have not yet been ironed out, reports suggested a curb-easing of 500k BPD. A total of some 2.2mln BPD of OPEC oil (barring Iran, Libya, and Venezuela) is set to return to the market under the May-July quotas (set in April), including Saudi’s 1mln BPD voluntary cut. OPEC will have to balance factors such as summer demand as COVID restrictions ease, any emergence of variants, the return of Iranian oil, competing US oil, and prices. Russia has argued that markets can absorb more OPEC+ supply amid an expected deficit. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear talks continue to drag on longer than expected due to outstanding sticking points – although desks and ministers have suggested that this output can be absorbed, with the country also exempt from OPEC quotas in light of US sanctions. In terms of competing US supply, OPEC officials reportedly heard from industry experts that US output growth will likely remain limited this year, according to sources, before a potential sharp rise next year. This gives OPEC+ giving it more power to manage the market in the short term. As usual, the group will likely test the waters and skew expectations via sources heading into the meeting.

AUSTRALIAN TRADE BALANCE (THU): The Street expects the Australian trade balance surplus will widen to AUD 10bln from AUD 8.03bln; if the consensus is realised, the Aussie trade account will have been in a surplus for 41 months straight. Local bank Westpac says the widening of the surplus will be underpinned by export strength, and customs data has shown iron ore was once again a stand-out, up strongly in May on higher prices and volumes. The bank says the imports have "largely marked time," which is a sign of consolidation after the strong rebound seen since May'20 through March'21; "By way of context, we expect the trade surplus to widen further in Q2 on sill higher commodity prices," Westpac says.

RIKSBANK POLICY DECISION (THU): Expected to maintain rates at 0.00% alongside their main QE parameters even though recent economic developments have been marginally better than forecast. In April, the Bank left policy measures unchanged and the repo path implied no action as far out as Q2-2024, while the accompanying commentary specified that a rate cut remains entirely possible, as usual. Subsequently, May’s CPIF printed at 2.1% YY and above the Riksbank’s forecast of 1.88% for the period, while the ex-energy figure was as expected at 1.2% YY; while this data is encouraging, the Riksbank expects prices to moderate as the year progresses. Nonetheless, if these inflationary pressures prove to be more pronounced/lasting it could well justify a marginally more hawkish outlook on the longer-term repo path. Growth measures have also been encouraging and better than the Riksbank envisaged in April prompting the Finance Ministry to upgraded their 2021 view but marginally cut 2022’s outlook. Overall, the meeting is likely to be a relatively uneventful affair with attention on the repo path which could more formally acknowledge the optionality of a rate reduction – though this will likely still be kept to the text release. On the flip side, there is perhaps a slightly greater chance of the very end (2024) of the repo path showing a hike given above domestic developments.

JAPANESE TANKAN SURVEY (THU): The BoJ Tankan survey is expected to show an improvement in business confidence among large Japanese manufacturers, with the Large Manufacturers Index and Large Manufacturing Outlook expected to tick higher to 15 and 18 from 5 and 4 respectively. This would mark the fourth straight quarter of improvement emerging from the worst of the pandemic. The non-manufacturing metrics are also expected to show improvements, albeit to a lesser magnitude. CapEx across the large industries is expected to be raised to 7.2% from 3.0% in Q1 as the business outlook improves.

US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (THU): Analysts expect a relatively unchanged manufacturing PMI in June, with the consensus pencilling in 61.0 from 61.2. Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN)' analysts are slightly more pessimistic than the consensus, and looks for a fall to 60.5. The bank notes that regional surveys as well as the Markit PMI data has remained elevated, however, it argues that there has been a modest slowdown in momentum from extreme highs; "supply-side pressures are currently the key constraint on production," CS writes, "but we expect these issues to ease in the months ahead, leading to persistent above-trend growth." The bank notes that goods demand is slowing after the stimulus-driven rise, but "output has lagged behind throughout the pandemic recovery, leading to a surge in imports and a sharp fall in inventories." It adds that strong manufacturing growth is crucial in stabilising inventory levels, and adds that a broader restocking cycle is an upside risk in the medium-term.

US LABOUR MARKET REPORT (FRI): The consensus looks for 600k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in June, following the 559k print for May. The jobs report will be taken in the context of the Fed's reaction function to incoming data. The central bank has already begun discussing the tapering of asset purchases, and has previously suggested that a 'string' of strong jobs report would catalyse any scaling-back of asset purchases. However, officials continue to note that over 7mln remain out of the labour market, relative to pre-pandemic levels. UBS notes that the Fed's statement on the jobs market somewhat surprised the bank, in light of the surprisingly low nonfarm payroll reports in April and May. UBS therefore believes that "a strong report would make the Fed look prescient and strengthen the USD even further, while a weak report could raise questions about the Fed's policy stance and hurt the greenback," and adds that "the results of the report and global PMI releases on Thursday are key for determining whether markets adopt a risk-on or risk-off stance" going into the jobs report.