Instigators of a Grinch sell-off are again being outflanked by the Santa rally’s advance guard. Metaphorically, these opposing forces are being led by the same person. For weeks, Donald Trump’s assessments of talks with China have demonstrably been the last word for day-to-day market direction. Since his claim a day ago that they are going “very well”, he’s had little else to say about the discussions. By contrast, China’s Commerce Ministry was rather non-committal on Thursday: “China believes if both sides reach a phase-one agreement, relevant tariffs must be lowered”. Going “very well” and lower tariffs as a condition is all we know for sure. All the elements seem to be in place for another volatility spike. We’re just waiting for the next word from Santa GrinchMeanwhile, major stock markets are almost all higher. Britain’s is an exception as the pound jumps, leaving the exporter-led market weak. And Germany’s barely gained before slipping under the weight of industrial and consumer shares. German factory orders data showed demand down 0.4% in October, the mirror image of estimates eyeing a 0.4% gainU.S. indices are taking the baton from firm futures, trampling over a relapsed . The (no) ‘fear gauge’ is set for a second session in the red after on Tuesday completing its only four-session stretch of gains since JulyJapan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ¥26 trillion fiscal stimulus package left JGB yields little changed and up just 0.3%. The package is in line with expectations whilst details of the fresh bond issuance are less impressive than the headlinesU.S. benchmark yields are barely moving, with the 10-year up 1 basis point at last check to 1.78%. EU yields tick lower extends Wednesday’s bounce on inventory relief as OPEC/OPEC+ begins a two-day meeting. Saudi has offered the carrot of its own deeper cuts if lesser members make greater efforts to comply with current limits. The stick isn’t specifiedStocks/sectors on the move
EU stocks: Apart from the , Germany’s is the other European high-capitalisation index that’s underperforming. Heavyweight Siemens and BASF are responsible much of the index dip. Consumer products maker Beiersdorf also responds to disappointing factory gate data. Luxury minnow Moncler’s rather academic rejoinder to takeover reports citing Kering (PA:) is that “no concrete hypothesis is under consideration”. The stock is up about 8%UK stocks: Aston Martin accelerates as much as 13% after a possible bid was reported by magazine Autocar. Battered shares of home ware retailer Dunelm jump 15% on a pre-tax profit forecast upgrade. Ted Baker (LON:) extends a recent decline by 4.6%. It’s appointed a consultancy to review operations after three profit warnings and last week’s disclosure of an inventory overstatement. Online rival boohoo.com falls a similar amount. The co-founders are selling 50 million sharesU.S. stocks: Kroger (NYSE:) adds to retail industry woes with an adjusted Q3 EPS miss. The stock retreats 2%. Tiffany & Co, after recently agreeing to be acquired by LVMH, reported weak profits; shares fell around 1% FX markets and gold
The Kiwi is the biggest mover again, reaching a four-month high after Reserve Bank Governor Orr said policy was in a “hold phase”. has gained about 1.7% in six days to stand last at 0.65234The slipped 0.3%, losing an initial 0.1% gain following Tuesday’s RBA hold. Retail sales were flat in OctoberIt’s day five of the dollar slide, the longest losing streak for about a month. Even so, safe havens are still weak vs. greenback, to characterise prevailing appetite as firmly one that is open to riskThe pound seems to know no bounds. Sterling is up two big figures in two sessions to around $1.314. Election certainty is very much bounded though, considering how unreliable poll indications have been in recent years. Right now they’re pointing more firmly to a Conservative majority in next week’s UK electionBOC’s hawkish hold a day ago keeps the loon among better performersIndian assets also sees some action after the RBI unexpectedly paused rate cuts, despite reducing 2019 growth forecasts. The rupee jumped the most in a session since last month. Bond yields spiked the highest since September, though stocks edged lowerUpcoming economic highlights
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Original Post
