Breaking News
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your experience. Save up to 40% More details

Is The US Election Becoming The Market Focus?

By Spreadex (Connor Campbell)Market OverviewOct 11, 2020 06:44
Is The US Election Becoming The Market Focus?
By Spreadex (Connor Campbell)   |  Oct 11, 2020 06:44
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

Will the US election, and what that means for covid-19 stimulus, be in the driving seat this week?

The US markets are entering a bit of a tricky period in the latter half of October – close to the election, but with enough else going on that it’s unclear how much attention is being paid to the actual outcome of the vote.

Last week was dominated early on by Trump’s covid-19 diagnosis, but less what it meant for the election, and more for its impact on a new stimulus package. His return to the White House appeared to remove an obstacle to a deal getting gone, only for Trump himself to emerge as a blockage, halting negotiations in their tracks.

After a major wobble investors were reassured by the President’s claims he would pass a package immediately if he won the election, while signalling a willingness to bail out US airlines, giving the go ahead for Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin to continue their talks.

Any further progress on a package, be it just for airlines or otherwise – and Pelosi has signalled an unwillingness to support an airlines-only deal without wider stimulus – will likely remain the focus for investors as the week goes on.

In terms of the election, after a chaotic week – which sees the debate schedule up in the air after the President rejected a virtual tete-a-tete on Thursday – Spreadex is offering Biden odds on at 40/85, with Trump at 7/4. Biden’s then also at an Electoral College Votes spread of 320-328, well ahead of the incumbent at 210-218, with the Democrat at a Total States Won spread of 25.5-27 to Trump’s 24-25.5.

These prices could continue to change dependent on if Trump pushes ahead with rallies in key states, what the lay of the land is regarding the debates, and the results of Joe Biden’s town hall address on Thursday, set to be shown on ABC News instead of the postponed debate.

As for the economic calendar, after Columbus Day on Monday, there’s inflation on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, jobless claims and Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing indices on Thursday, and retail sales, consumer sentiment and industrial production readings on Friday.

The third quarter earnings season also gets underway, with JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) on Tuesday; Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) on Wednesday; and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) on Thursday.

The big focus for the UK this week is the October 15th Brexit deal ‘deadline’ – the point at which Boris Johnson has said, if an agreement isn’t reached, both sides should ‘accept that and move on’. The pound and FTSE could feel a bit anxious ahead of that date, unless there are serious signs that either a deal is imminent, or that the ‘deadline’ will be extended.

Before that, there’s the jobs report on Tuesday, and the Bank of England credit conditions survey on Thursday.

Also keeping an eye on Brexit negotiations, the Eurozone sees German inflation and ZEW economic sentiment readings on Tuesday, industrial production on Wednesday, French inflation on Thursday and the region-wide inflation and trade balance numbers on Friday.

"Disclaimer: Spreadex provides an execution only service and the comments above do not constitute (or should not be construed as constituting) investment advice or recommendations, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any person placing trades based on their interpretations of the above comments does so entirely at their own risk. Spreadex Ltd is a financial and sports spread betting and sports fixed odds betting firm, which specialises in the personal service and credit area. Founded in 1999, Spreadex is recognised as one of the longest established spread betting firms in the industry with a strong reputation for its high level of customer service and account management.

In relation to spread betting, Spreadex Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. It may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved."

Original Post

Is The US Election Becoming The Market Focus?

Related Articles

Neil Wilson
How Do You Trade The Fed? By Neil Wilson - Jun 18, 2021

How do you trade the Fed? Not easily, is the simple answer. US has ripped higher as the Fed signalled it won’t let inflation run riot, but bonds have been pretty steady – United...

Is The US Election Becoming The Market Focus?

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (1)
Kenneth Yeung
Kenneth Yeung Oct 11, 2020 16:35
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
The US market is factoring in a Biden win.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email