Good morning, hope you had a good weekend. Friday's trade worked exceptionally well with the long from 6585, and well done if anyone held it over the weekend, as it gained a few more since I closed (at 6614 as per email). It's looking fairly upbeat first thing this morning as I write this and that has created quite a few gaps, which might well close first thing this morning. Key level initially for the FTSE is 6632 where we have resistance and in fact have dropped back from a bit overnight. Continuing the war theme after the Ukraine, North Korea has been live test firing missiles, though the Russia situation has calmed down a bit. News out of Japan showed an unexpected slow down in industrial production. Yellen is speaking later today, and traders will be awaiting payroll data later this month. As we are nearing the UK tax year there are some who will be putting money into ISAs, so as I mentioned the other day, I expect share prices to remain attractive for the S&S ISA money, for the moment. No sharp sell-offs, just yet.
FTSE 100 Outlook
The bullish run that we rode on Friday from the 6685 area has continued without any major upsets news-wise over the weekend, however we are testing the resistance at 6632 now. With some gaps formed since Fridays close i expect that we may get an initial dip from this area, to around the bottom of the 30 minute channel and the pivot area at 6606. However, if that level breaks then 6685 and 6563 are the next supports, the 85 one more than likely to get hit. That is the level that held on Friday so would set up a two day double bottom. As I mentioned above, there is likely to be some ISA money coming in this week before the tax tar ends on Saturday. However, we do have Yellen speaking later today, last time causing the market to drop. So, if we have risen to the resistance area at 6648 by that time, then it might be worth a short then.
Gold
Gold still struggling to make any headway and still hovering at just below the 1300 level - 1296 as I write this. Looking at the daily chart there is still hope for the 1299 long, as there are some upward heading channels, though the EMAs done look too great for upside. Further weakness below the 1285 support level that has formed will see 1275, though I am still feeling a bit of a bull for gold; it will need to break 1300 to hit 1309 and then 1320 as the next resistance levels.
S&P 500
Resistance is 1866 today and a move above that would encounter resistance at 1669 and 1875. Support for today is 1852, 1847 and 1839. Bear in mind Yellen is speaking later (14:55 UK time). That may well be bearish if last time is anything to go by!
I am thinking a rise to the 1875 area before a drop.
DAX
Just nearing the top of the downward PRoTrend resistance line on the daily at 9660, so I expect we may also see an initial dip on this. The Raff channels are pretty positive though, especially the 10 minute, so if the bulls were to break that resistance level at 9660 upside target would be 9775. Support exists longer term at 9400, a drop below which would send it bearish for a while. Today's support is 9576 and the daily pivot at 9553.
FTSE 100 RAFF Chart
