Contrary to what one might have expected, given the long series of disappointing macro data, global trade increased in January.
World trade volume rose 2.4%, the biggest gain since November 2011. On a year-on-year basis, global trade is now flat. This raises the question of whether companies, especially in the manufacturing sector, are being a bit too gloomy.
The answer could well be “yes”. At the same time, however, there is no denying that the economic growth outlook has deteriorated significantly in recent months. In addition, a trade deal between China and the US hasn’t been reached yet, which continues to be a drag on global exports.