Though I managed to get the overall theme right in last month's review, some points were not as important or as direct as I would have hoped. The market has basically held within the range established back in late Jan - early Feb. However, I'd anticipated a turn back up a few days following my writing. This turned out to be actually a week later plus the idea that consecutive closes below 1.2211 might suggest bearishness turned out to be false...though with mitigating circumstances. We had consecutive indecisive Doji Crosses as closes, rare when seen in series.
Nevertheless, we've moved higher and halted before the Bearish Upper Tine resistance and the Long MA (currently 1.2655). I'd like to draw one parallel and various divergences between GBP/USD and EUR/USD to illustrate a point. Whilst forming basic similar patterns there are notable divergences. Whereas EUR/USD is neutral with a bullish aspect, GBP/USD is not the same. We've constant declining highs in GBP/USD and without a Bullish Reverse H+S Pattern showing as in EUR/USD. We also have a single Bearish Schiff Pitchfork whilst EUR/USD has none applicable. However, both have ascending lows though this is perhaps where the similarity may end.
Overall, there is a gradual decline, very shallow, in GBP/USD which is not manifest in EUR/USD. Finally, we've not even tested up to the Long MA in GBP/USD whereas we've already breached it once in EUR/USD. Therefore, though I've kept the neutral bullet point above, I'm more inclined to move it to Bearish than would be the case for EURUSD, despite the Key Reversal Up on the Weekly Chart three weeks ago. Looking towards the future, there's a crossover of Tines on the 20th of Apr.
Look out for this as we may see a change or reinforcement of trend or just a very volatile day. The previously mentioned crossover days from last month proved valid on the 15th as this was the breakout up from the low and 'sort of...' for the 23rd...two days after we had the high for Mar though the day itself was seemingly unremarkable. Support is currently at 1.2493 (dynamic), 1.2447, 1.2429, 1.2415(dynamic), 1.2375, 1.2343, 1.2326(dynamic), 1.2272(dynamic), 1.2256, 1.2210, 1.2149(dynamic) and 1.2100. Resistance is currently at 1.2615, 1.2655(compound, dynamic and important), 1.2683, 1.2708, 1.2812, 1.2852(dynamic) and 1.3011(dynamic).
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