Was a bit hasty not taking the long at 6851 yesterday after all as it did indeed bounce. I had got spooked by the S&P losing 10 points (off the back of poor data mostly) and the FTSE 100 not holding above 6870 as it felt the bulls had lost it at that point - just goes to show how its so hard to call as it bounce off the 50 level back to 6875, while the S&P 500 regained 1925. Certainly tricky at the moment and maybe a sign of uncertainty and topping out?
I do think the worm is starting to turn, as even with Gold continuing its decline, the FTSE hasn't put on that much upside. Asia has been pretty strong overnight with improved Chinese PMI news though - their news is certainly fluctuating between good and bad at the moment.
6877 looks the key level to break then today for the bulls to then test the top of the Bianca channels around the 6895 area.
FTSE Outlook
Well, we still haven't dipped below that 6850 level on the FTSE 100 as yet, though the daily pivot has risen to 6861 and being below that would infer that there is some weakness - it will now switch to resistance rather than support. That said, if the bulls can break 6861 initially this morning then a rise to 6877 is likely - being yesterdays high.
Above that we have the Bianca channels at similar levels to yesterday - 6895 and 6899 so worth a short there. The Bianca channels are narrow at the moment, and offer support at 6833 and 6808; the top of the Raffs are both at 6908, with 10 day support at 6836. So, basically, that is saying that a short around the 6900/6910 area with a stop at 6925 should probably come pretty good. If it gets that high, of course.
It does feel like the bulls are running out of steam a bit, they failed to hold the gains with that late bounce from 6851 yesterday and the S&P is off its high (needs to fall below 1918 to turn properly bearish!).
Overall the FTSE was pretty flat yesterday - just a 25 point range so not really many ideal trading set ups presented themselves. Today I'd be looking to short any rallies to 6877, 6890, 6900 - those sort of areas. A possible long presents itself at the bottom of that 30 minute channel at 6840, supported by the 10 day channels on Bianca and Raff at 6833 and 6837 respectively.
Daily Raff Channels
Bianca Trends
Gold
Not a bad 30 minute channel in play for gold today, with resistance at 1246 and support at 1234. There is better support at 1231 though, and a break of that would likely reach 1228. If the bulls capitalise on any index weakness this week they will need to get gold above 1250 and ideally 1277 to invalidate the drop potentials.
S&P
There is still a possibility that we will see 1927 on the S&P 500, though the failure to hold above 1925 looks like we might be starting to level off and, dare I say it, possibly drop! 1927 and 1930 look good shorting areas today. There is support at 1918, a move below that meaning that we have probably seen the top for the moment at 1926. The daily pivot for today is 1922 - where we are as I write this so we may get some initial support.
DAX
The DAX failed to break that 9985 resistance yesterday, hitting 9988 and just struggling to reach the 10000! As per yesterday, they need to reach 9993 and break it to reach the next resistance at 10030. This is also right on its daily pivot at 9950 as I write, so may offer initial early support, though below that 9920 looks good support.
We are not that far off the bottom of the daily 10 day Raff at that level too (9920ish) so a fairly key level for the bulls to defend.
