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FTSE 100: A Large Bounce Is Expected

Published 16/12/2014, 07:59
UK100
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Yesterday the FTSE 100 attempted to rally but the rally failed and the index made a new low. On the daily chart the decline from the top is unusual, it is in a straight line. It's a kind of mini crash and a taster before the real crash happens. This is not an easy market to trade because when the index is down by a large percentage in a short period of time the bounce will be equally large. So if you are thinking of going short you need a wide stop loss as the bounce will end in a wide range.

Note that the two timing indicators 13-day BTI and Top 20 Differential are deeply oversold, this is why the bounce will be large. The FTSE could rally to the 6400-6600 area by the end of December. In the short term however, the wave count suggests that the decline is not yet complete, so before the rally starts we could see another dip to 6100.

It is also possible that yesterday's low at 6182 marks the end of the decline. During a sharp decline driven by panic sometimes the fourth wave is so tiny that it does not look like a fourth wave. When the decline resume many people will think it is still the third wave down where in fact it's the fifth wave down. This could be the case here.

FTSE 100: 2 Hourly Chart

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