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FTSE 100 Back Above The 200-day Moving Average

Published 19/11/2014, 07:59
UK100
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Last week both 13-day BTI and Top 20 Differential gave a sell signal but the FTSE 100 failed to decline following some positive news coming from the ECB and Japan. When the indicators give a strong sell signal it is never guaranteed that the FTSE will decline. There is always a small chance the index will rally because we can not predict what central banks or government will announce.

The FTSE was ready to decline but the ECB announced new measures to boost the economy as did Japan yesterday. Important announcements are more powerful than any indicator. If the news is positive the market will simply rally whether or not the indicators are overbought. There is also positive influence due to seasonality. The market tends to rally during the last two months of the year. But this is just a tendency and there is no certainty the market will rally. In fact last year we saw a large decline in November.

The stock market is ready to resume its decline but once again politicians and central bank intervened to drive prices higher. This is pure manipulation and we have to live with it. What we have noticed is that governments in Japan and Europe have failed to boost their economies with monetary stimulus. We know it does not work yet each time they make a new announcement the stock market rallies. The FTSE is now back above the 200-day moving average. This is a resistance area and a perfect setting for the start of the next leg down.

FTSE 100 Daily Chart

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