EUR/GBP: Trend Up?
At my last annual review in Dec 2016 I had the bullet point at Bullish as at that time (much like now) the MAs were all pointing higher. It was my cautious nature that tempered the Bullishness mildly and added a question mark to the bullet point. Given that again we have the MAs pointing higher I ought to go fully Bullish. However, I'm again cautious as we have not had a new high since 2016 and the high of 2017 ties in with the Bearish 2008-to-date Downtrend (currently 0.9296 dynamic) as resistance. We've had a narrow 2017 compared to last year and loitering within the vicinity of the 50% Fib of the recent move (currently 0.8836) doesn't help the case in either direction. It may actually help the Bearish case more than the Bullish as we could regard the 2016-to-date acton on the Yearly Chart as a possible Bearish Tweezer Top.
Yet, this has flaws as 1) it is not the most convincing of Bearish patterns overall and 2) we seem to be exhibiting during this past year the Third Way of markets...namely - going sideways. I have kept the bullet point as last year in mildly Bullish to acknowledged the MAs but it is not convincing unless we break the multiyear Downtrend or close below the support for the last year or so formed from the 50% Fib of the 2008 - 2016 move at 0.8371. Two consecutive Monthly Closes outside of these support or resistance parameters and we might then see the direction...till then...sideways it seems.
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