Last month I was sceptical of the rise I’d seen as we hadn’t managed to overcome the resistance of the 50% Fib of the Oct – Dec 2016 move at 0.8834. Well, the market decided to do just that in Feb and we saw a move higher followed by falls back.
The most interesting feature of these early moves was the gradually ascending lows and fairly static highs, usually seen as a Bullish pattern. Then this week I thought we’d broken the back of the rise as the pretty reasonable Jan-to-date Uptrend (currently 0.8801) was breached… twice. However, we did not have any close below the Uptrend and then yesterday we had a great Key Reversal Up on the Daily Chart.
This has led to today’s punch up through the (somewhat broken) Nov 2017-to-date Upper Channel (currently 0.8873) and an attack on the Long MA resistance (currently 0.8885). I will watch this one carefully as I think we are coming to a cusp in action as along with this move, we also have a potential Key Reversal on the Weekly Chart. For a KR Up we’d a close tomorrow (Friday the 2nd) over 0.8850. For a KR Down we’d need a close under 0.8780.
At the moment the upside is looking more promising. So what’s ahead…well, the key overhead levels are two Fibs. The 61.8% Fib of the Oct – Dec 2016 move at 0.8959 and the perhaps more important Aug 2017 – Jan 2018 50% Fib at 0.8996. Given the details above and also the mixed nature of the MAs I’ve decided to move the bullet point above away from mildly Bearish and into Neutral…just in case.
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