EUR Remains Weak due to Recession Risks

The major currency pair is starting a new trading week neutrally not far from 1.0430.
 
EUR/USD remains weak. The risk of recession in many global economies is becoming more and more noticeable, and it increases demand for “safe haven” assets. As a result, the “greenback” looks pretty attractive.
 
Early in the week, EUR/USD is promising to be rather calm – the US is celebrating a holiday on Monday, Independence Day. However, the rest of the week will be very interesting.
 
As a rule, the US reports on its labour market at the beginning of the month. Stable data for June will keep the market in balance, while the decline in the numbers might cause a global risk aversion and a new wave of the USD strengthening.
 
In the H4 chart, EUR/USD is still falling towards 1.0340; this movement should be considered the first structure within another descending wave. After reaching this level, the pair is expected to correct to test 1.0480 from below and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.0220. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 inside the histogram area and forming a new structure to update the lows.
 

 
As we can see in the H1 chart, EUR/USD is forming the fifth structure of another descending wave to reach 1.0340. Later, the market may correct to break 1.0388 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1.0480. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 50 downwards, its signal line is heading towards 20.
 

 
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.