GBP/USD
Against a background of bullish signals for this week, Monday saw GBP/USD trading caught within a tight range. More importantly all price action was confined, tightly, by Friday’s parameters – an ‘Inside Day’ that highlights investor indecision. This means that signals cannot be strong but with the Keltner channel and 13 day average trending positively and buyers attracted in Asia, intraday sentiment is assessed as positive.
So, our call is Cautiously Bullish above 1.6848. Confirmation is a move through 1.6902 to 1.6920, last week's peak, and 1.6949 while the risk below 1.6848 is to 1.6823/24, Friday’s bottom and the 13 day mvg avg.
EUR/GBP
Gradual gains for EUR/GBP Monday resulted in a 2nd up day in a row.
However, the upside was modest and unable to clearly breach last Tuesday’s Marabuzo line or the 13 day moving average. This means that the despite a lack of selling interest, signals for sentiment are left mildly negative.
So, our call is Cautiously Bearish below .8243. The immediate objective is .8205 then .8191 or even towards .8174.
EUR/USD
There has been limited movement in EUR/USD over the last 3 trading days, despite the powerful rejection of Friday’s low. This makes immediate signals for sentiment difficult to determine but with prices supported by the 13 day avg, Asian buying interest and the break of a weekly bear trend in the background, sentiment is assessed as mildly positive.
So, our call is Cautiously Bullish above 1.3846 with an immediate target of 1.3906, Apr’s peak, then 1.3929 and towards 1.3967, March’s high.
The risk is below 1.3846 to 1.3812 and 1.3798.
The risk is that selling pressure is being overrated – signalled above .8243 to .8259, last week's top, and .8279.