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DAX Gone Wild

Published 08/05/2014, 08:03
UK100
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US500
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DE40
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GC
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I had four trades pencilled in for yesterday but only one took: the long at 6770, which ended up running to target at 6804. The price never got quite high enough for any of the 3 shorts to kick in, but the bulls certainly defended the 6770 despite it being tested by the bears for most of the day. Yellen was speaking yesterday and reiterated that the fed will continue to underpin the US Economy.

Overnight saw news of improving Chinese export/import numbers. The DAX was the wild one yesterday - bouncing just above the support at 9390 and then running all the way to resistance at 9545, certainly one for the braver traders.


FTSE Outlook

Yesterday was the big test of the 6770 support level for the FTSE 100 that held, at least so far. If tested again today I'd class that as the second test (also likely to hold). But then any further tests tomorrow onwards will probably break. Similar to yesterday we have resistance at 6816 and 6830, though we also have the channel top on the 30 min chart at 6842 where I have drawn the pink arrow to.

Therefore the short at 6830 will need to have the stop slightly above that, and possibly will even be a good place to add to the 6830 short. As such, I will probably go half stakes at 6830, and add at 6840. Today’s pivot is 6787 so that could act as support on any initial dip, and in fact if we do get those first two arrows, is likely to. Shorts from 6830/6840 will be decent today I think!

As I mentioned yesterday it does feel like the bulls are running out of steam a bit and I am also mindful of the sell in May mantra that people will be considering at the moment. As such, shorts of the resistance levels should work well today. We nearly saw 6815 yesterday (mid-price, excluding the spread) out of hours and have since fallen back to 6800 despite that improved news from China. Usually if the head of the Fed says that they will continue to underpin the economy the bulls go mad. It’s quite telling that they didn't yesterday.
FTSE 30 min Chart

Daily Raff Channels
FTSE Daily RAFF Channels

Gold

Gold certainly dropped off the 1312 resistance area mentioned yesterday, but failed to find support at 130. It tried to bounce a little bit but then carved through and dropped to 1290. There are two supports today, 1286 and 1279, the latter one probably worth a long.
Gold Daily Chart

S&P

Bulls will need to break 1880 on the S&P 500 to target 1892 and 1902. The support level 1860 held well yesterday, but despite Yellen's testimony didn't add that much fuel to the bulls. 1892 might tally with the FTSE hitting that 6830/40 area. I think a short at 1892 is worth going for.
S&P500 Daily Chart

DAX

DAX was wild yesterday hitting both extreme support and resistance levels mentioned 9390 and 9545 - all in one session. Was a brave one to trade yesterday.

For today, I have support at 9450 then the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 9392 again.

Resistance wise, a move above 9554 then 9570 and 9610 are possible. If 9610 were to break then the top of the 10 day Raff at 9711 is distinctly possible.
DAX Daily Chart

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