Last month I placed the bullet point above:
Into Neutral because of the overhang of resistance between 111.20 -111.30 and the key 50% Fib at 108.86. Oddly enough given the new recent low, the close-on-close is within 40 odd tics which I suppose is a justification...but this is beside the point! The point is that despite the new recent low, we've not had consecutive closes, in fact not any closes, outside those ranges. Hence, the bullet point above stays the same because...we're still caught
Well, we've had both these this month. We dropped to test the 108.86 50% Fib of the whole 2016 move closing twice consecutively below it and the September 2016-to-date Uptrend and then we pushed up through the 111.20 - 111.30 resistance (which has since dissipated as the Medium MA [currently 111.01] has moved away as has the Short/Medium MA [currently 110.48]). We've even gone over the Long MA.
Now here comes the rub! The drop down lasted only two days. Enough to sucker the market with two consecutive closes underneath but not long enough to do lasting damage. Similarly the move up had a Key Reversal Up during the move... something that I always find suspect in this pair...but nevertheless justified in this case. It also has a possible Bearish Dark Cloud Cover Pattern over the last couple of day's work which goes against the recent move.
Then there's the Monthly Chart...on that we have a KR Up. Again, this may be suspect but it is after all on a longer term Chart so should have some greater validity. We have had a rollercoaster market over the last three months and though we've made new lows we've ended up over all the MA's yet not managed to make a new high...as yet. MA's are mixed, one up, two sort of down and one sideways. I think the current lack of a new high has convinced me on balance to still say the market is Neutral though I have some strong reservations. We've only spent less than a week over the Long MA and we may have even formed a Bearish Pipe Top (yes...I haven't labelled that on the Daily Chart above...too early to say). If this market is Bullish then it is not doing a convincing job of showing it!
Support is currently at 112.19, 111.97 (dynamic), 111.75, 111.65, 111.46, 111.17, 111.01 (dynamic), 110.91, 110.06 and 109.89.
Resistance is currently at 112.52, 112.71, 112.98, 113.25, 113.57, 114.32 and 114.50.
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