Nick Batsford, CEO of Tip TV, opened the Tip TV Finance Show alongside Richard Hunter, Head of Equities for Hargreaves Lansdown (LONDON:HRGV), to discuss the outlook on rate hikes in both the UK and the US, as well as views on volatility and China.
All eyes on Bank of England this Thursday
Hunter outlined that he doesn’t believe rates will be hiked in the UK, and noted that the fact we are still discussing a rate hike both here and in the US is a good sign for our economies. Hunter highlighted that the tightening of the labour market is unlikely until the end of this year and thus the first quarter of 2016 is favoured for a rate rise.
He continued onto the fact that the average interest rate level since 1694 in the UK is around 4.5%, but it will be a long time before we get back there. Hunter also commented that like the United States, the rates will be risen on a very gradual basis as derailing is not something that the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve want. He finished by adding that the significance of how much interest rates are raised is greater than when they occur.
Is China a real market?
Hunter continued on to China and questioned whether China’s market, debating how real or artificial the market is. He added that the rest of the world is less willing to invest in China and is encouraging the Chinese government to step back and reduce intervention in the markets. Hunter outlined that volatility continues to surround the Chinese markets, and this led to his comment that August often has lighter volumes which amplifies movements. He noted that the VIX index currently lies around 28, with the historical average around 20, and during the financial crisis in 2008 it was up as much as 80.
Equity yields 7.5% in Europe compared to 4% in the US
Batsford commented on fund performance, and identified how European equity long-short hedge funds are return 7.5% YTD compared to just 4% in the US. Therefore it is very difficult to stick to themes when markets are gyrating so much, according to Batsford. Hunter added that with the FTSE 100 and most American indices in negative territory, there is no surprise that the returns are crimpled.