Coffee: Last time I placed the bullet point above into mildly bearish and suggested that I would go full bearish if we went two consecutive closes below the Long MA – which we subsequently did. It would have likely made you money but the whipsawing was quite violent. Since then, we’ve risen and peaked just short of 157.00. This is where the 50% absolute Fib at 153.23 is key – no two consecutive closes over it. This was a clear indicator that though it had been breached, the rally was running out of impetus.
We are now back below it and also the Medium MA (currently 150.90) along with a load of other Fibs and we are again approaching the Long MA support (currently 143.89) – remember – I would look for two consecutive closes below to be a valid break. We additionally have further Fibs supporting at 143.51, 142.75, 141.92 then 140.75 before we have a sterile area down to 138.36(dynamic) […and I’m not even sure how good that is] then 135.84 and 132.82.
Resistance has a whole lot of banding from 147.10 up to 154.93 with the 153.23 level obviously key. MAs are two up and two down and as we are approaching the Long MA I’ll remain cautiously mildly bearish.
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