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Just when you think you'll have to find new ways to say the same Bearish things...voila! We've not only had some decent action but we've tidied up this Daily Chart above quite well. The market which had been happily travelling above and along the Middle Tine of the Bearish 2017 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 113.40) decided after the third recent attempt lower this year that it had enough and moved sharply up and away. The reason...we hit the same low area as we did back in Jun 2017 in the 115.25 level. Nice you would think...but wait! The rally did indeed pierce and have multiple closes over the Medium MA and thus perhaps rendering it into a Neutral stance. However, Friday we tested back down to it and I've concerns that we may repeat what happened back in early Jan (look at the Daily Chart above) when we did the same thing and even managed to pierce and close once over the Long MA (currently 127.35) only to then fall away lower.
Another superficial Bullish sign is the move over the recent 50% Fib at 124.40. However, we only close over it once and as of Friday...we're a long way away...actually testing the 61.8% Fib at 122.25 which is currently coincident with the Medium MA. I'm grateful for the move as it tidied up my Daily Chart. However, I have concerns as to whether it has the legs to stay up and eventually test the Long MA or ultimately the Upper Tine of the 2017 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 130.70) and the key 50% Fib of the Jun - Aug 2017 50% Fib at 131.25. Next week will be crucial...you'd need consecutive closes over the recent 50% fib and at least a test of the Long MA... otherwise....we'll likely run back into the rough of support 118.00 - 121.00 and maybe look to test that key 115.30 level that's been the low last Jun and this Apr. With one MA pointing up and all others heading down, that moves the Bullet point into mildly Bearish from fully Bearish despite being above the Medium MA (just!).
A final point...the brick wall that is the support at the 115.25 area is interesting...this recent rally may be just some long term shorts that've see what happened before in Jun 2017and covered...in which case, they may be back in again...and soon...playing down to the strong support at that 115.25 area.
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