Coffee: Trend Down?
A messy Daily Chart above...but here's some prescient writing from last time:
The question is whether it gathered enough ammunition for a try higher or just enough to keep us in the doldrums of the 133 -157 area we saw at the end of last year and into the beginning of this year. So far the market has overcome the first of three hurdles of real resistance (exclusive of the MAs). There is a band of resistance that is now support 134.98 -137.04. The next is possibly quite strong resistance between 142.75 -144.48 and the final piece is 151.77 -153.23. I'm not sure as yet of how good is the upward pressure...it could all fail if we have consecutive closes back below 128.34.
Fail is what it did with a topping action based on the seemingly minor resistance of the April high at 143.71. Prices took a good look on the upside but fell over the course of the week below the Long MA (currently 137.00) and then the following week under the Medium MA (currently 130.45) and the recent 50% Fib at 128.34 so that in the course of the month we'd gone from mildly bullish, into neutral and into mildly bearish.
We've ended up around the 50% Fib at 128.34 and with still the same three areas of resistance above us that were mentioned last month and above.
So where now? I have resisted the desire to draw a fresh Andrews or Schiff Pitchfork on this move down as I am just not comfortable with it as yet. However, I would point out the possible (Bearish) Bow
Tie formation about to happen...more on that next month.
Support is currently at 125.75, 125.50, 124.71, 121.90, 121.60, 120.25, 117.03 and 112.97.
Resistance is currently at 128.34, 129.78, 130.45 (dynamic), 131.97, 134.98 - 137.04, 140.18 and 142.73 - 144.48.
As suggested above, bullet point goes into mildly bearish.
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