Over the last two months I have drawn your attention to crossovers on the 27th of Feb to the 2nd of Mar and then also the 4th – 5th of Mar as a period of potential key development and/or volatility in Coffee!
As you can see on the Daily Chart above, right in between on the 3rd of Mar we had the most recent low before the changeover – so I missed it by a day… depends how thick a crayon one uses I suppose! Anyway, since then we’ve had basically indecision! On the Daily Chart above you can see a Key Reversal Down on the 24th after which we have a little follow through but it doesn’t last.
This is also mirrored in longer term charts where the Weekly Chart has in recent times seen a Bearish Harami immediately followed by a Bullish Harami! The Nov 2014 – Jan 2015 Andrews Pitchfork still shows the angle of attack of the market but in the next few days we will see a test of the Upper Tine resistance (currently 140.40) and I have concerns about its ability to withstand attrition.
However, I am minded that this market ought not to rise back up but more likely go the third way and head sideways. Hence, I’ve dropped the bullet point above into neutral as not only are the MAs changing but the key Long MA is gradually reducing its bearishness.
Support 136.00, 131.80, 134.15, 125.09 (dynamic), 147.10, and key at 121.89 (dynamic) & 117.03! Resistance over the 140.40 level is at 142.73, 145.40, 147.10, 148.64 & key at 153.23 (50% Absolute Fib) & 155.55 (recent 50% Fib).
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