The latest data corroborates the continued Chinese economic contraction is still in motion according to inflation data released overnight. October’s consumer price index showed a 1.30% annualized inflation, much lower compared to last month’s 1.60% reading and median estimates of 1.50%. Slowed food inflation, subdued commodity prices and a strong yuan contributed to slower growth in consumer prices. Statistical data showed food pricing increased by 1.90% compared to September’s 2.70%. Non-food pricing climbed at a weaker pace of 0.90% whereas consumer goods climbed by 1.00%. The producer price index, indicative of producer input costs, fell -5.90% compared to a year earlier, marking 44 straight-months of contractionary values. Factory output looks set to weaken on the back of soft demand and excess production capacity that has built up, forcing price reductions and increased competition for market share. Combined with trade-surplus figures released over the weekend that noted export shipments falling at a -6.90% annualized rate and comparable import figures for the time period tumbling -18.80%, the indications for the economic outlook are fairly dismal.
All these factors underline weak domestic demand, for commodities mostly, and substantial overcapacity available in almost all sectors of the economy. Irrespective of loosened monetary policies from the People’s Bank of China after six interest-rate cuts since November 2014 and numerous other measures intended to stimulate lending and borrowing, the world’s second-largest economy is failing to accelerate. Muted inflation predicts that the PBOC will have to push for further easing with possible additional rate cuts, expanding government fiscal stimulus or a combination of both. The possibility of the Federal Reserve preparing for a rate hike in the coming month will make further easing difficult for the PBOC. Economists and analysts continue to reassure market participants that China’s economy will improve. Considering that the country’s economy has more than doubled within the last six years, it still remains a vital engine for global consumption and production. However, a deeper contraction is likely before heralding another generation of growth for the economy.