Financial markets have to digest many different factors during today’s session. First, the international lending entity IMF slashed global growth for the third consecutive time in six months for 2019, then US President Trump announced it will implement tariffs on $11 billion EU products and finally a Brexit (longer) delay as well as ECB monetary policy meeting are nearing.
Thereupon, the International Monetary Fund global growth outlook drop comes with no much surprise, yet remains weakest since 2009 at 3.30% (January: 3.50%) as risks over deteriorating market sentiment, tighter financial conditions for vulnerable economies as well as EU area spillovers and a hard Brexit are considered.
Furthermore, US – China trade discord is discounted, as recent progressions are expected to prompt a rebound in business and investor sentiment.
According to IMF scenario, major risks derives from Europe and China among other EM economies, despite a raise in China’s growth of 0.10 percentage points (6.30%). We would however nuance the statement, since the situation in Europe, Asia and EM countries have stabilised.
The risk of a no-deal Brexit has sensitively lowered as the EU Commission is expected to offer a flexible, longer delay (e.g. 12 months) at the EU emergency summit session from today, while expectations are turning towards a rebound in China’s economy for 2H 2019 by means of policy stimulus initiated earlier last year.
For what concerns the recent announcement made by the Trump administration that it is willing to slap tariffs on EU products (incl. aircraft manufacturing industry), we remain confident that a rapid resolution between both counterparts is feasible.
Currently trading at 1.1272, EUR/USD is heading along 1.1250, as caution will remain the final word during today’s ECB meeting.
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