A 15% rally in silver prices now comes in days, not months
Last month I was inclined to see the market ‘…as we approach the General Election, that the uncertainty will test the low 1.4900’s before over 1.5350!’. My hopes for sub 1.5000 for GBP/USD lasted just two days after my report publication before the market started the bull move up over 1.5350 on the morning following the General Election results, then through Apr, Feb & making new 2015 highs before halting ahead of the minor low 1.5852 from Oct 2013 and the more significant 50% Fib at 1.5877 of the whole Jul 2014 – Apr 2015 move and reverting back down.
Prices did not halt either on the way up or down at the Long MA which I do find surprising (currently 1.5535). We have since mid-May declined and are currently 150 tics higher than at the last time of writing. Needless to say the bullet point above now goes into neutral and we find support at the combination of the Medium MA (currently 1.5163) & the Apr – May 50% Fib at 1.5187. I have left on for one more month the old Bearish Schiff Pitchfork to give some definition but it really is useless.
Topside, well we really don’t have much apart from the Apr high 1.5496, the combi of the Long MA & the 61.8% Fib of the previously mentioned longer term move at 1.5567. However, these would appear to be sketchy resistance at best. I looked at the longer term charts & the Weekly Chart proved interesting in its past actions. Last time I mentioned it had been good at showing market direction and at time of last writing it had shown a possible Bearish Shooting Star. Well this bearish pattern was immediately followed the next week by a Key Reversal Up that negated it.
At the moment on that Chart I only have the mildly bearish Two Black Crows pattern! Overall, I will be very interested to see the action as it approaches the 50% Fib support at 1.5187 and whether the possible Golden Cross of the Short/Medium MA (currently 1.5130) over the Medium MA will produce anything bullish.
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