I can write about the decline, rally and subsequent further decline during the month of Nov in cable but what really matter is the response following Super Mario Thursday – last Thursday! We did NOT have a Key Reversal Up such as happened in EUR/USDbut the intention was there. This was coincident with all MAs beginning to point lower, a sign that has prompted me to push the bullet point above into mildly bearish territory but contra to the action indicated by last Thursday’s action.
Yet I must point out that Non-Farm Payroll Friday that followed the Thursday was disappointing to any bull. There was no follow through higher from Thursday’s event; prices did not attempt to test up to the key 50% Fib at 1.5201, prices actually ended the week with a lower close Friday compared to Thursday. Looking at the Weekly Chart we’ve not done anything to threaten the KR Down from the week ending the 6th of Nov.
Additionally, the Monthly Chart looks a bit indecisive but not much more. Hence there is pressure now that though the recent rally may have relieved the oversold situation, there still has to be a follow through in the next few days higher otherwise we will more than likely head back down. So what levels are we looking at? Well, the current key resistances on the upside are Thursday’s high (1.5158) and the previously mentioned 1.5201.
There needs to be consecutive closes over these soon so that an attempt can be made at the resistance band 1.5244 – 1.5322 in which the key longer term 50% Fib at 1.5244 and 1.5288 plus the Long MA currently At 1.5322 make up a sizable obstacle. After that further resistance is at 1.5405 – 1.5410, again substantial. Below the market we have support from the very recent 50% Fib at 1.5025, the low at 1.4893 and then pretty much nothing until 1.4687.
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