I wrote last time that:
Unless we can stabilise over the Long MA (currently 7851), it seems likely that we may try lower. With that in mind, I've decided to move the bullet point above into Mildly Bearish...for the first time in a while.
We failed to stabilise and consequently we fell away lower. Initially to the 6500 area support from late March/early April and then to the 2018 low at 5920...in the process making new 2018 lows at 5783. We even had our first close back below 6000 at 5848 on the 28th of June. However, the next day we turned around with a Key Reversal Up. We were then still within the Bearish Channel (currently 5401 - 6588) that had driven us lower since late May.
However, this...along with the possible Bullish Double Bottom formed in late June...were the first real attempts to get out of the decline. Today, we've a minor victory to the Bulls as we're currently above the Upper Channel and it will be up the market to see if this is the right way. If it is, then once we can overcome some minor resistance in the 6700 - 6770 area we'll have to see if there's an appetite for an attempt at the congestion around 7500. After that there's the big one, the Long MA (currently at 7851).
If we chose not to try higher then we actually have some significant support at 5783, 5567, 5375 and 5087 before we hit some big stuff in the form of the 2017-to-date Uptrend (currently 4763). It's an interesting one to watch and with perhaps a slight tinge if we close strongly today to extend that move higher. Given all that's happened and with most of the MAs pointing lower, I'm minded to leave the bullet point above at mildly Bearish...at least till we see more than just a Bearish Channel being broken and a possible Double Bottom.
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