Last time I wrote:
A Day of Days…! Up until this point I would have said we still had some Bullish construction or at least opportunity in the market. However, as I write, I note how the market has broken down not only through the 50% Absolute Fib at 9837 but how we’ve also made new lows this year, breaking down through the early January lows at 9218 and most importantly breaching for the first time the major supportive move up of the past five months – the September 2017-to-date Uptrend (currently 9182).
We’ve not just touched it and reversed (at this time). We’ve punched down below 9,000 and as I’ve mentioned in many media many, many times…we’re moving towards Neutral…well this time; we may be just about reaching it.
Neutral is what we got…sure we carried on lower…but we stayed in between the Medium MA (currently 9174) and the Long MA (currently 5719) for the first half of the month before recovering back over the Medium MA.
We’ve continued to use the Bearish December 2017 – January 2018 Schiff Pitchfork as the Bearish angle-of-attack of the market…until the last couple of days. Yesterday we finally moved above the Upper Tine (currently 10682) but backed off. Yet today we’ve tried again…and if we’re serious about it then we’d need consecutive closes over it…if not then we stay within the Bearish Schiff Pitchfork and move back towards full Neutral.
Are we ready to Bullish again? That’s the question the market has to answer in the next few days. The first real upside test would be the recent 50% Fib at 12,791. If we really want to stay in Neutral…well then we better get below the Medium MA. As we’ve shallow to flat lining MAs I’ve decided to keep the bullet point above in Neutral.
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