Last month I wrote ‘…the action last week suggests another attempt lower – conservatively 487.00 or 481.55 but it could be 470.87 or even 444.81 again.’.
Perhaps, I should not be so conservative next time as Bitcoin (BTC-eUSD) prices travelled sideways to a little lower during the 1st half of Sep and then fell, bounced and then fell again, continuing to weaken, punching down through the previous significant low at 339.95!
Today we are resting & testing on that low! So what happened? From what I can see it seems perhaps we’ve had from mid Aug to Mid Sep a possible Bearish Triangle of some form. I’m still not sure on it, but it looks appropriate & could explain the drop on the 19th as the target would have been around 380ish!
Prices then rallied again including a Key Reversal Up on the 23rd but that rally just slammed into the overhead resistance formed by the Aug Downtrend – which I have extended into two possible Bearish Channels. The first of the Lower Channel Lines (currently 330.79) is being tested right now!
The next Lower CL (currently 289.28) may become the next actual target if we have two consecutive closes below 330.79 as there is very little apparent support ahead of it and only the minor low at 265.06 & the Apr high at 259.32 as support before we look at the 2013-to-date Uptrend (currently 168.88)!
Topside resistance as mentioned at 339.95 and then at 365.20, 378.78, 397.75 & 420.02. Last time I wrote ‘…I would anticipate perhaps a full bearish bullet point next time.’ The time has come!
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