Aussie To Continue Its Fall

Published 08/06/2015, 11:36

AUDUSD - Daily Chart

It’s funny how even though you get the next thing wrong…sometimes it all works out for the better. For instance - last time I notably wrote ‘I have the sneaking suspicions that we will be heading sub 0.7800 next week and possibly below 0.7700 shortly thereafter!’. Well we dripped below 0.7800 to 0.7795 but the action on the very next session after writing was actually a Key Reversal UP!

However, this was followed by an indecisive Spinning Top Pattern which needed the kick of a fix by another KR Up the following week to push prices higher. However, prices took one look over the resistance band 0.8058 – 0.8085 and came right back off – this time with a KR Down on the 22nd and possibly on the 26th of May as well! This has ended up with the month down overall – which suits the bullet point above & last time but also sees it approaching the support from current market levels all the way down to 0.7531 that has held up prices this year. At the moment, I do not think there is enough momentum for AUD/USD to push down through this support but it will be interesting to watch what will happen if we go below 0.7600!

So what now?

Well, overhead we have a band of resistance which on paper may be good between 0.7793 – 0.7847…just like the Maginot line was I hear you say... Beyond that, 0.8058 – 0.8085, 0.8162 & then the significant band 0.8221 – 0.8231. On balance, would suggest with basically all MAs pointing down and the failed recent attempt higher that we may try again lower – so beyond 0.7531 we have support at 0.7449, 0.7325 & the hugely important 2001-to-date Uptrend (currently 0.7130). It is worth noting that on the Monthly Charts the KR Up in Apr is now a fail in May...also!

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