I was looking forward the AUDUSD last time as I wrote
‘…I have raised the bullet point to mildly bullish in anticipation of possibly raising it again to full bullish next time.’
Well, we had the rally after my report to one of the levels then mentioned (125.68) and just peeked over it but failed to close over. The next day we had a big Bearish Harami Pattern that was also a Bearish Matching Pattern and more importantly a Pipe Top variation on the Double Top theme. We have since then come off and any rally has been met with negative pressure, e.g. the 17th on the Daily Chart above.
However, in the last week it has started to exhibit indecisive behaviour. Last Tuesday we had a Bullish Long Legged Doji as the market finally punched through the 122.50 support but then failed to close under it. Yet the subsequent rally evaporated two days later when the market formed a Bearish Shooting Star, the top of which was battered down by the Jun-to-date Downtrend (currently 123.49).
Therefore, it seems we are being held in a minor (so far) holding pattern as the support at 122.50 & 121.92 seems good, on a closing basis at least with the Medium MA (currently 120.96) & 50% Fib at 120.70 holding up any penetration. Topside, we have the Downtrend (currently 123.49) plus the Jul 2007 high at 123.65 nearby and further pressure likely at the 2007 high at 124.16, 124.37 – 124.43 and then further in a band 125.68 – 125.84.
Three out of four MAs are still rising so I will keep the bullet point as it is for this coming month.
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