AUD/USD: Trend Down
From last time '.. we've a likely chance soon to test the Lower Tine of the May - Dec 2017 Schiff Pitchfork support and then possibly the Dec 2017 low at 0.7498...then maybe fulfil a possible Bearish Huge Double Top (see the Chart above). If we don't do this soon then we may sill have the same result.just talking longer. Only consecutive closes over the Long MA/50% Fib combo (0.7794 - 0.7802) would negate this...'. I updated the numbers in non-italics to help as basically all the above came about...and the updated numbers are acting as resistances. So why did we stop falling this week. The simple reason is that we had the same lows back in Dec 2017 around 0.7500 and this reason halted it. However, the reason the lows around 0.7500 happened in the fi'rst place is because of the key and important 50% fib at 0.7493 of the whole May 2015 - Jan 2016 move.
I cannot stress how important that area level is and though it has been punched both up and down...it is still key and important and rightly should be credited with the reason for halting at least for a while the current decline. All this does not take away from a potentially HUGE Bearish pattern... a Huge Double Top stretching from Jun 2017 -to-date. You can clearly see it on the Daily Chart above. Normally, I try to include the 'X' potential Target for a move on such a Pattern within the Daly Chart above. However, this one's so large that I'm just going to just give the level...'X' = about the 0.6850 area. It's a big ask but it would be reasonable given evidence so far. The question is whether the market chooses to take on the Pattern...or do something else. With all MAs pointing down, I'm obliged to remove the question mark on the bullet point above.
A couple of final items...we have an odd Dead Cross of the Long MA down through the Medium MA. Dead Crosses are fine but you would usually expect to see the Medium MA go down through the Long MA... not the other way around. In the short term, I've limited resistance up till the 50% Fib of the May 2016 - Aug 2017 move at 0.7638 so we might see an early pullback to that level as we did back in Dec 2017...how much will decide the next move.
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