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AUD/USD
I wrote this last month:
'Last time I wrote '...I'll keep the bullet point at Neutral but the previously mentioned Bearish action plus now the idea that we may have later a possible Double/Triple Top for this market (see the Daily Chart above). I will indeed think carefully about moving the bullet point next time perhaps into at least Mildly Bearish. I have marked an 'X' as a preliminary target area for such a move should it start or occur.
I have in the meantime carefully thought about this matter and have decided to move the bullet point into mildly Bearish.'. The target 'X' at 0.7560 has been achieved and we were seemingly travelling along under the Upper Channel (currently 0.7576) of my much mentioned (here and on other media) Bearish Channel formed during late Sep and Oct. We'd punched down through the Fib congestion 0.7631 - 0.7638 and we tested the equally Fib congested 0.7523 - 0.7518 area when we seemingly have rejected it. It did look (and I remember mentioning it recently on a broadcast) that the next week or so were crucial as the Upper Channel was descending and the Fib support band was not yielding. Then came last Friday! We not only punched through the Upper Channel resistance that is now support but we also did it with a Key Reversal Up.
This does not immediately mean that we have had a turnaround - no! Beware of false breaks...even good looking ones. No - this means we are on notice for a possible change in trend form basically Bearish to either Neutral or Bullish. To confirm this hypothesis we'd need a second, maybe a third consecutive close over the Upper Channel. Ideally I'd like it higher than the previous one of 0.7609 if it were to be true but it is more important we have confirmation if this move higher is to be able to develop. The next few days are crucial!
Support is currently at 0.7576 (dynamic), 0.7550, 0.7538 - 0.7518, 0.7475, 0.7368 and 0.7326.
Resistance is currently at 0.7631 - 0.0.7638, 0.7692 (dynamic), 0.7726, 0.7754 - 0.7756 and 0.7820 - 0.7833 (dynamic).
Bullet point stays the same as most MAs are pointing lower. However, I have a mind to change it next time.
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