Trade uncertainties, Trump’s pressure to cut interest rate and weakening economic data: all seems blurred as to how the Fed should react. Market interpretation should play an important role in the future development of the greenback as well.
Treasuries continue to gain traction, with yields lowest in over a year across all maturities as expectations of Fed Funds Rate cuts, uncertainties amplify. Although no rate cuts are expected for Wednesday meeting, changes in forward guidance and the Fed’s dot plot are largely anticipated.
During its monetary policy meeting, the Fed is about to turn more dovish, with a shift in language from “patient” to more flexible, paving the way for one rate cut this year and additional easing in 2020 as well. GDP and inflation forecasts currently set at 2.10% and 1.80% will likely be revised downwards as deteriorating economic data support the trend. Nominal and Core PCE given at 1.50% (prior: 1.40%) and 1.60% (prior: 1.50%) in April remain below the 2% target while manufacturing activities downtrend are approaching contraction territory as a result of escalating trade war with China.
Furthermore, major problems related to Trump's interference in the Fed's affairs constitute a major obstacle for the central bank, which is supposed to preserve its independence to ensure credibility and avoid long-term difficulties, in particular when stabilizing the economy and the dollar. Certainly, an escalation of political pressure would most likely negatively affect USD and conversely the US economy.
As ECB President Mario Draghi speech about stimulus is weighing on the EUR, we expect EUR/USD (1.1185) to approach 1.1175 short-term while June ZEW figure of -20.2 (prior: -1.6) for the Eurozone should support the decline.
"Disclaimer: While every effort has been made to ensure that the datat quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and Swissquote Bank and its subsidiaries can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a recommendation o sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investment.
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make informed decisions prior to investing. The material presented here in not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. Swissquote Bank makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments."