German election brings political uncertainty
The German election results were pretty much as expected but the reality has brought a degree of chaos to Berlin and protesters onto the streets. Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU alliance had its worst result in seventy years but remains the largest part in the Reichstag. However, it is the rise in nationalism that is causing the most concern. Following the Dutch and French elections, nationalism was supposed to be under control, but Merkel’s open-door policy together with the recent spate of terrorist incidents and the general rise in street crime has opened the door to Alternative for Germany (AfD) to gain 13% of the vote.
Merkel will now have to cobble together a government from the minority opposition liberal and green parties since the second largest party, the Social Democrats (SPD) will leave the “Grand Coalition” and form an opposition. Support for the SPD collapsed as the country lurched to the right.
Merkel will need to take heed of the opposition as her majority will be slender at best. Her immigration policy will need to be reviewed as will her attitude to free movement, which is starting to come in for criticism.
Free movement. A step too far?
Who favours the free movement of labour within the EU? It certainly isn’t the UK given it was the major driver of discontent that led to the Brexit vote, even if that was whipped up by UKIP to be something it wasn’t. Germany has now veered decidedly to the right despite the brave face being put on the election result by Mrs Merkel. Merkel now resembles Margaret Thatcher when she was on the final leg of a long and successful leadership. She is becoming outmoded and out of date.
The EU is an experiment that will take many many years to become what Kohl and Mitterrand envisaged. So, why the headlong rush into free movement of labour and make it such an all-consuming policy?
There has been nowhere near enough time to study even theoretically the effect on the various economies of the 28 (soon to be 27) but Messrs Tusk and Juncker are rigid in their belief.
Individual agreements between members are anathema to the EU leadership but clearly that is how free movement should have been commenced with quotas eventually replaced by free movement. The German election result could possibly open some eyes but there will still be delusion that only 13% voted for AfD. That could become 25% or 30% in four years if the situation of both free movement and Merkel's “open door policy” continue without amendment.
May on a tightrope and the knives are out
Just how long can Theresa May remain as Prime Minister? She has an abysmal approval rating in the country, she is all at sea over Brexit and it appears that her ministers are simply allowing her sufficient rope to hang herself. Sadly, following Friday’s muddled attempt at clarity her days seem numbered.
This weekend the Conservatives meet for their Annual Conference. The chances of Mrs May managing to unite the party behind her are slim at best, bordering on non-existent.
The Brexit transition period she announced in Florence on Friday, which has presumably been agreed with the EU will anger her colleagues who are calling for compliance with the March 31, 2019 departure date and no further payments to be made after that date. The much mooted Eur 20 billion that will be paid during the transition is in direct conflict with the view of Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and his “Blueprint for Brexit,” which could still become government policy.
As Donald Trump has found, making outrageous policy suggestions when campaigning is very different from enforcing them when power suddenly arrives.