Merkel reaches sell-by date
There is an advertising in campaign in the UK, which is trying to educate consumers about the difference between a sell-by date and a best-before date. In the case of the “first ladies” of European politics both seem to have reached their sell-by dates.
May and Merkel’s best days in politics are behind them so they were clearly “best before” a few years ago.
Angela Merkel managed to be re-elected to a fourth term as German Chancellor almost by default. The CDU/CSA alliance was always going to be strong enough to face a left of centre party given the way politics in Germany is headed and so Merkel won. However, in a comparable way to Margaret Thatcher, Mrs Merkel is starting to become “the past”. Her natural successor is yet to emerge and whoever it turns out to be will face an extremely tough time in four years if Germany continues on the same path.
The AfD Party which did “remarkably well” despite polling exactly what was expected of it managed to “do a UKIP” and reveal splits at the moment of its greatest triumph. Co-Leader Frauke Petry picked that moment to announce that she was leaving the Party and would sit as an independent member of the Reichstag.
Delegate or Representative?
It is a question in Political Science 101 in the UK to discuss whether an MP is a delegate or representative. Does he (or she) represent the views of his constituents or is he delegated to act on their behalf in whatever manner he sees fit?
No matter what the answer is, it seems Brexit has turned MP’s into delegates as they are required to vote in line with their Party’s requirements. There are any number of MP’s representing (or acting as delegate for) constituencies who voted remain just as there are any number of remain MP’s.
The entire process has become politicized and that is what is driving the delays in getting concrete proposals on the “three demands”.
Michel Barnier, the EU Chief Negotiator has gained the upper hand in negotiations following last week's speech by Theresa May. It contained a further series of wishes and “airy fairy” plans for the treatment of EU citizens and an inducement which was designed to provide sufficient scope for phase two (the post-Brexit relationship) to begin.
Far from agreeing a transition period which will amount to nothing more than an extension of the negotiation period, the EU could easily break off any further negotiations until it receives unreserved proposals.
China has Trump just where it wants him
Chinese President Xi Jinping has played a perfect hand in directing his “Puppet in Pyongyang”. Xi has allowed Kim Jong-un to goad Trump to such an extent that he has become so preoccupied with Kim’s antics that it is becoming all consuming.
China meantime grows its influence in Asia and globally almost uncontained.
The dollar fell from its recent highs against the JPY as tensions were further ratcheted up as Pyongyang threatened to shoot down American planes even if they weren't in North Korean airspace as America had “declared war”. Trump has already made his intentions clear but is unable to allow Kim the last word.
So it goes on...but in the meantime Seoul and Tokyo hope there is no mistake or an overreaction