2025 could bring investors further gains, especially in the US, but there are also great opportunities in Europe and China. But what strategies should investors pursue to avoid risks and make the most of opportunities?
A look back and cautious optimism
2024 was a good year for investors, despite economic difficulties in Germany and global uncertainties. Record stock market prices and a sustained boom in cryptocurrencies provided a boost. 2025 also offers the potential for further price gains. However, high equity valuations and falling credit spreads on bonds urge caution. Risks could increase over the course of the year, especially in markets with weaker fundamentals.
Consumption and economic development
The fall in inflation is boosting purchasing power, and rising real wages and stable employment are supporting consumption. This is further fuelled by central banks lowering key interest rates. Overall, global growth rates are likely to increase moderately in 2025, which will benefit the financial markets.
Nevertheless, the economies will develop differently. The gap between prospering and crisis-stricken states will widen, which means that investors will have to choose their investments carefully.
China and the eurozone under pressure
China remains a source of uncertainty: weak growth and low inflationary pressure allow for monetary and fiscal easing, but put pressure on western industrialised countries through cheap export prices. In the eurozone, low productivity growth and trade conflicts are hindering growth.
Germany could experience a recovery thanks to looser monetary policy and a potentially more expansionary fiscal policy. The outcome of the election and the government's handling of the debt brake could also be crucial. The government would have the option at any time to support and initiate incipient growth through clever investment and infrastructure programmes.
Growth starts in Switzerland and the USA
Switzerland benefits from high productivity growth and net immigration, while in the US, rising productivity and a looser fiscal policy are boosting growth. In the short term, the US economy presents an optimistic picture, but a return of inflation could make interest rate hikes necessary in the long term.
Risks and opportunities in the capital markets
Bonds: While US Treasuries should remain stable or offer slightly higher yields, European bonds are more risky. Investment-grade corporate bonds remain attractive.
Currencies: The US dollar should strengthen due to strong real yields and growth rates. By contrast, the euro and the British pound are at risk of depreciation. The Swiss franc is strong thanks to high productivity gains.
Equities and commodities
In 2025, stock markets could benefit from robust economic data. US stocks in particular should be spurred by growth and tax reforms. It is likely that 2025 will start similarly to 2024. Initially, there will be corrections, but without jeopardising the overall bullish structures. It remains to be seen how much sentiment will be dampened by inflation fears over the course of the year.
Commodities face challenges, especially due to China's weak demand. Oil prices could fall slightly as the US expands its production. Gold remains in demand, although high US real interest rates could limit the increase.
Cryptocurrencies remain in focus
Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are benefiting from growing investor interest and the new US administration's crypto-friendly policy. Nevertheless, volatility remains high and long-term stability is still not guaranteed. Nonetheless, the chances of further gains this year also remain high.
Conclusion
2025 offers investors attractive opportunities, but at the same time requires a selective strategy. Risk assets remain interesting, but should be weighted carefully. A differentiated view of markets, regions and asset classes will be crucial to successful investing in an increasingly heterogeneous environment.
Disclaimer/Risk warning:
The information provided here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. It should not be understood as an explicit or implicit assurance of a particular price development of the financial instruments mentioned or as a call to action. The purchase of securities involves risks that may lead to the total loss of the capital invested. The information provided does not replace expert investment advice tailored to individual needs. No liability or guarantee is assumed, either explicitly or implicitly, for the timeliness, accuracy, appropriateness or completeness of the information provided, nor for any financial losses. These are expressly not financial analyses, but journalistic texts. Readers who make investment decisions or carry out transactions based on the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. The authors may hold securities of the companies/securities/shares discussed at the time of publication and therefore a conflict of interest may exist.