Benzinga - The U.S. banking sector has dealt with major liquidity issues in recent weeks, including the failures of SVB Financial Group (NASDAQ: SIVB), Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY) and Silvergate Capital Corp (NYSE: SI).
It's becoming increasingly likely U.S. regional banks will soon face a wave of new government regulations to prevent this type of instability from happening again in the future, Bank of America bank analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said Monday.
Regulatory Options: U.S. banks classified as global systemically important banks (GSIBs) have much more rigorous regulatory oversight and liquidity requirements. U.S. megabanks JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) are just three examples of GSIBs.
Related Link: S&P 500 Volatility Continues As Investors Digest Latest Banking Sector Headlines
Poonawala says the recent liquidity crisis will likely force regulators to close the regulatory gap between regional banks and GSIBs. He said there are several changes regulators could make to crack down on smaller banks:
- Implement a minimum Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) requirement.
- Implement a total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) requirement.
- Require an annual Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test for banks with more than $10 billion in assets.
- Include unrealized loss on available-for-sale securities in the regulatory capital calculation.
Regulatory Fallout: These new regulations could significantly weigh on profits and growth for regional banks and potentially put them at a disadvantage to larger competitors. Fortunately for investors, Poonawala said the regulatory crackdown will likely not be coming immediately.
"We expect banks to have a multi-year phase-in period to comply with any new changes," Poonawala said.
Benzinga's Take: If Poonawala is correct, it may be wise for investors to avoid regional bank stocks until the new regulatory environment becomes more clear. In addition, it could set up an interesting bank stock pair trade opportunity for investors to go long GSIBs and short their smaller regional counterparts.
Photo via Shutterstock.
Latest Ratings for SIVB
| Jan 2022 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | |
| Jan 2022 | Janney Montgomery Scott | Downgrades | Buy | Neutral |
| Jan 2022 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform |
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
© 2023 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.