Benzinga - by Chris Katje, Benzinga Staff Writer.
In the 2024 election, with the presidency, 11 governorships, a third of the Senate, and all House of Representative seats at stake, both American voters and investors are turning their attention to the upcoming political contests.
Here’s a look at the potential expenditure on political advertising and the companies poised to profit from this surge.
What Happened: The 2024 presidential race could end up being a tightly contested rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the country’s two most recent presidents.
The Republican Party, Democratic Party, candidate’s campaigns and political action committees are expected to spend aggressively on political ads over the next year and up to election day.
A new report from AdImpact predicts the 2024 election cycle will hit a new record of $10.2 billion, which would be an increase of 13% from the 2020 election.
As shared by NBC News, the ad spending predicted by AdImpact breaks down to $2.7 billion for the presidential election, $2.1 billion on the Senate races, $1.7 billion for House races, $361 million on governor races and $3.3 billion on other elections.
The record spending prediction is even higher than the 2020 election when taking out the $800 million spent by billionaires Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer who ran for president with self-funded campaigns. Excluding that figure, the advertising expenditure for the 2024 presidential election might see a 27% increase from the 2020 election.
Among the states that will see the heaviest ad spend are swing states, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin. These states could see around 75% of the total ad spending for the presidential election.
Six of the seven states mentioned were flipped from Trump to Biden in the 2020 election, and all seven were decided by 3% or less.
Surprisingly, Florida could experience a dip in spending for the presidential campaign. With both Trump and Ron DeSantis hailing from the state, a heated Republican primary might ensue. However, Florida is anticipated to remain a Republican bastion in the main presidential contest.
Related Link: Trump Slips 3 Points In Latest GOP 2024 Poll, Still Leads By 43, Yet A Rival Gains Traction
Stocks to Watch: With heavy advertising spending for the 2024 election races, media companies that sell ad slots could stand to benefit from the cycle.
National television companies could be among the biggest beneficiaries with companies including Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA)(NASDAQ: PARAA), Fox Corp (NASDAQ: FOX)(NASDAQ: FOXA), Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) owning CBS, FOX, NBC and ABC respectively.
With its rights to several of the Republican Primary debates, Fox could benefit from advertising during the current quarter and heading into 2024.
Comcast was mentioned recently as a company to benefit from President Biden announcing a new $25 million ad campaign that kicked off with the opening National Football League game of the season, which aired on NBC.
Outside the national media companies, there are several publicly traded companies that own local media stations that could stand to benefit from national campaigns and local races during the 2024 election.
Gray Television (NYSE: GTN) is the nation’s second-largest television broadcaster, with a presence in 113 markets. The company reaches 36% of U.S. television households. Among its stations, the company has the top-rated station in 79 markets and 101 markets where it is first or second in market share.
NexStar Media Group (NASDAQ: NXST) is the largest local broadcast television group in the United States, with 200 stations covering 116 markets. The company reaches 68% of all U.S. households.
Tegna Inc (NYSE: TGNA) operates 64 stations in 51 markets and reaches 34% of all U.S. households.
E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) owns 61 television stations in 41 markets and is also the owner of many daily newspapers.
Radio and digital music companies could also benefit from the increased advertising spend, with companies like Sirius XM Holdings (NASDAQ: SIRI) and Spotify Technology (NYSE: SPOT) likely to be the biggest beneficiaries.
Advertising on social media will remain a big question for the 2024 election, as many platforms cracked down on content over misinformation concerns in the 2020 election. Platforms like Alphabet Inc's (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL) YouTube, and Meta Platforms' (NASDAQ: META) Facebook could also potentially benefit from increased political ad spending.
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