HSBC analysts cut Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to Reduce from Hold in a note Monday, raising the price target to $86 from $75 per share.
The firm said Moderna's outlook for 2024 is underpinned by prospects for its COVID-19 vaccine revenue and RSV launch. They note there are two Individualised Neoantigen Therapies (INT) readouts in the medium term, but they are skeptical, citing RSV vaccine efficacy concerns.
"Besides the COVID-19 vaccine outlook, Moderna's personalised cancer vaccine programme (now called the Individualised Neoantigen Therapies or INT) has been at the centre of debate regarding the company's prospects," explained HSBC. "The latest 3-year follow-up analysis for the Phase 2 KEYNOTE-942 study appeared to boost investor confidence in the INT programme.
"Meanwhile, the RSVVW conference data update suggests that the company's mRNA RSV vaccine shows a faster waning efficacy than its competitors, raising concerns over its market potential after the launch in 2024," they added. "We think mRNA-1345 is likely to be priced at a discount to the competitors due to the possibility of more frequent dosing."
On the positive side, HSBC lifted the MRNA price target based on pipeline de-risking.