Proactive Investors - The global pharma sector is expected to see clinical trial readouts that could potentially de-risk approximately US$74bn of peak sales in 2023, according to a research report from Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN),
This is in comparison to US$102bn of readouts in 2022 and US$78bn in 2021, excluding COVID-19-related treatments.
The report also found that a record proportion of the 2023 readouts, approximately 40%, will come from line extensions where a drug is already approved for use in a different disease setting.
This is particularly true for European major pharmaceutical companies, where 54% of the value is expected to come from line extensions, compared to 30% for US Major pharmaceutical companies.
The report also analysed the potential impact of clinical and commercial catalysts on the net present value (NPV) of various pharmaceutical companies.
The businesses with the most overall upside or downside include Sanofi (EPA:SASY) and GSK PLC (LON:GSK), with Roche, Sanofi, AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:AZN), and Novartis having similar clinical upside at 2-4% NPV.
Credit Suisse rates the two UK stocks – AZ and GSK – ‘neutral’.
Credit Suisse retained its ‘outperform’ recommendations on Roche and Sanofi due to strong underlying growth and favourable valuation upside potential.