Deutsche Bank research released an Industry update on the current state of the auto industry following the tentative conclusion of a six week long strike by the United Auto Workers against Detroit’s three biggest car companies, General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford (NYSE:F), and Chrysler-parent Stellantis (NYSE:STLA).
“We expect the D3 to report relatively stable sales results in October on a selling days adjusted basis,” wrote the analysts in a note.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank anticipate the October sales of light vehicles in the US to reach approximately 15.8 million units, showing a slight increase from September's 15.7 million. This figure remains notably higher than that of October 2022, which stood at 15.3 million units.
The projected daily selling rate is estimated to be around 48.8 thousand units, slightly lower than the previous month's rate of approximately 51.4 thousand units, owing to one less selling day in October compared to the previous month.
With the apparent resolution of UAW strikes across the Detroit Three, the odds of a significant decrease in inventories and price hikes, which could have risen from a prolonged strike, are reduced.
This also eases the potential impact on vehicle availability, thereby preventing any dent in SAAR.
Consequently, Deutsche Bank’s forecast for the 2023 SAAR stands at 15.3 million units, marking a substantial improvement from the 13.8 million units in 2022, primarily fueled by the recovery in fleet, slightly surpassing the levels seen in 2021 at 14.9 million units.
Shares of GM, F and STLA are up 1.41%, 1.61% and 3.22% respectively in mid-day trading on Monday.