Invezz.com - On a fateful Monday off the coast of Sicily, the Bayesian, one of the world’s largest and most advanced sailing superyachts, sank after encountering severe weather conditions.
This catastrophic event has left the maritime community grappling with the question: How did such a sophisticated vessel succumb to the elements so quickly?
As details emerge, the focus shifts to understanding the specific factors that led to this disaster.
Bayesian disaster
The Bayesian, a 56-meter British-flagged superyacht, was anchored near Palermo when it was struck by a violent storm.
The yacht, managed by Camper & Nicholsons and owned by UK tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, was carrying 22 people, including 10 crew members and 12 guests.
Of these, 15 were rescued, but six, including Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter, remain missing. Tragically, the body of the yacht’s chef was found near the wreckage.
The rapid sinking of the Bayesian, a modern and well-equipped yacht, has raised alarms about the dangers posed by extreme weather events, especially as they become more frequent due to climate change.
But what exactly happened that led to the sinking of this state-of-the-art vessel?
The role of the waterspout and extreme weather
Italian coastguards suggest that the Bayesian was likely caught in a waterspout, a type of tornado that forms over water.
This intense weather phenomenon, combined with the yacht’s anchorage, created a perfect storm that overwhelmed the vessel.
Despite the forecasted bad weather, the severity of the storm was unexpected, catching the crew off guard.
A nearby skipper, Karsten Borner, witnessed the event and provided crucial details about the moments leading up to the disaster.
Borner described how he had to use his boat’s motor to maintain control and avoid colliding with the Bayesian as the storm hit.
According to Borner, the Bayesian was hit by a powerful gust of wind that caused it to heel over dramatically, laying the yacht flat on the water. Within moments, the vessel began to take on water and sank rapidly.
How does a yacht’s design impact its stability?
One of the key factors that may have contributed to the Bayesian’s sinking is its 72-meter aluminium mast, the tallest of its kind in the world.
Such a tall mast, even when not bearing sails, presents a large surface area to the wind, known as “windage.” In extreme wind conditions, this can significantly destabilize a yacht, making it more susceptible to capsizing.
In Borner’s account, the combination of high winds and the yacht’s towering mast likely created enough force to tip the Bayesian over.
This would have allowed water to enter the vessel, especially if any windows, hatches, or companionways were open, further compromising its buoyancy.
Additionally, the Bayesian was equipped with a lifting keel, a feature designed to allow the yacht to enter shallow harbours by reducing its draft.
However, if the keel was in the raised position rather than fully extended, it could have further reduced the yacht’s stability in such extreme conditions.
A raised keel would mean less counterweight to balance the yacht against the force of the wind, making it more vulnerable to capsizing.
Is the Mediterranean weather to blame?
The sinking of the Bayesian also highlights the unpredictable nature of Mediterranean weather, which can turn violent with little warning.
Unlike the North Atlantic, where weather changes are often signalled days in advance by shifting air pressure and visible cloud formations, the Mediterranean is known for its sudden and intense storms.
The storm that struck the Bayesian was part of a larger system known as a “Dana,” an acronym for “Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos” or isolated high-altitude depression.
These thunderstorms are notorious for their unpredictability and can produce extreme weather, including strong winds and heavy rains. The same weather system also caused severe flooding in the Balearic Islands, including Mallorca and Menorca.
What does climate change have to do with this?
While the exact cause of the Bayesian’s sinking is still under investigation, many experts point to the broader context of climate change as a contributing factor.
The Mediterranean has seen a marked increase in extreme weather events in recent years, a trend that is likely to continue as global temperatures rise.
Last week, the Mediterranean Sea recorded its highest surface temperature on record, with a median temperature of 28.9°C. This follows 15 consecutive months of record-breaking global sea temperatures, driven by the ongoing heating of the world’s oceans.
Warmer seas can fuel more intense and frequent storms, including hurricanes and waterspouts, which pose significant risks to maritime safety.
Meteorologists have long warned that climate change will lead to more extreme weather events, including stronger storms, prolonged droughts, and more severe flooding.
The Bayesian’s sinking may be an example of the dangers these changing conditions present, especially in regions like the Mediterranean that have traditionally been seen as safe havens for sailors.
Lessons for the yachting community
The tragic loss of the Bayesian underscores the need for ongoing vigilance and adaptation within the yachting community.
As extreme weather becomes more common, yacht owners, builders, and skippers must reassess traditional safety practices and design standards to ensure they are equipped to handle the new realities of a changing climate.
For yacht builders, this might mean rethinking certain design features that, while offering advantages in certain conditions, could pose risks in extreme weather.
The Bayesian’s tall mast and lifting keel, for example, are both features that have benefits under normal circumstances but may have contributed to its vulnerability in this particular storm.
For skippers and crews, the incident highlights the importance of preparedness and the need to take potential weather threats seriously, even when conditions initially seem manageable.
In the case of the Bayesian, the crew may not have anticipated the severity of the storm, but once it hit, there was little they could do to save the vessel.
Safety at sea ultimately depends on a combination of factors: the design and condition of the vessel, the skill and experience of the crew, and the ability to anticipate and respond to changing weather conditions.
The sinking of the Bayesian serves as a sobering reminder that even the most advanced yachts can be vulnerable to the forces of nature, particularly in an era of increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather.
The sinking of the Bayesian off the coast of Sicily is a tragedy that has left many unanswered questions. As investigations continue, the focus remains on understanding how such a well-equipped yacht could have been lost so quickly.
The incident serves as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by extreme weather, particularly in a world where climate change is making such events more common.
For the yachting community, the loss of the Bayesian is a call to action. It underscores the need for greater awareness of the risks posed by extreme weather and the importance of designing and operating yachts with these risks in mind.
As the search for the missing continues, the lessons from this disaster will hopefully lead to improvements in safety and preparedness, helping to prevent future tragedies at sea.
This article first appeared on Invezz.com
