Ethereum Gains Over Bitcoin, Dogecoin As It Nears Key Milestone: Analyst Warns Things Could Go Downhill After Merge

© Reuters. Ethereum Gains Over Bitcoin, Dogecoin As It Nears Key Milestone: Analyst Warns Things Could Go Downhill After Merge

Major coins were in the green Wednesday evening as the global cryptocurrency market cap rose 1.5% to $1 trillion at 8:20 p.m. EDT.

Price Performance Of Major Coins Coin 24-hour 7-day Price

Top 24-Hour Gainers (Data via CoinMarketCap) Cryptocurrency 24-Hour % Change (+/-) Price

Why It Matters: Ethereum intraday gains outstripped that of Bitcoin hours ahead of “The Merge” — which transitions the second-largest cryptocurrency from a proof-of-work framework to a proof-of-state mechanism.

Cryptocurrencies continued to track U.S. stock futures, which were up, at the time of writing. On Wednesday, after a volatile session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended 0.3% and 0.7% higher, respectively.

Thursday saw the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August which fell 0.1% month-over-month compared to a 0.4% fall in July.

Investors are waiting for a slew of economic data on Thursday morning such as retail sales, jobless claims, import prices and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey.

“Bitcoin’s best case scenario was for the Fed’s soft landing to happen and now that seems less likely as the risk of recession is growing. A broader slowdown is hitting Wall Street and that should keep Bitcoin grounded and stuck in this crypto winter,” said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA, in a note seen by Benzinga.

On the imminent Ethereum merge, Moya said, “Ethereum’s Merge should be a pivotal moment for the cryptoverse and its current weakness is more likely reflecting investor expectations that we will see a classic ‘sell the event’ reaction once the Merge is done.”

“Ethereum will likely continue to chip away at Bitcoin’s lead as the top crypto, but chances of a 'flippening' will have to wait a couple more years.”

A Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) poll conducted by Justin Bennett appears to concur with Moya’s assessment that The Merge is a “sell the event” phenomenon as far as price action goes.

Does $ETH pump or dump when the #Ethereum merge upgrade is completed?

— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) September 14, 2022

A majority, 49.2%, of 2,330 respondents on the trader’s poll said ETH will dump post the upgrade, while 29.2% said it would Pump. 21.6% said it was a “non-event.”

Michaël van de Poppe explained on Twitter that the funding rate is “ultra negative” on Ethereum because people have spot ETH for an anticipated airdrop.”People hedge with shorts on $ETH to cover their positions. Risk-free trade.”

Why is the funding rate ultra negative on $ETH?

- People have spot $ETH for the airdrop.

- People hedge with shorts on $ETH to cover their positions.

Risk-free trade.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 14, 2022

The cryptocurrency trader said in a separate tweet that the funding rate on ETH is negative 0.2% as “everyone is shorting the Merge.”

Funding rate on #Ethereum is -0.20% as everyone is shorting the Merge.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 14, 2022

Negative funding rates under 0 mean that short sentiment is dominant while rates over 0 indicate longs are dominant.

Willy Woo tweeted Wednesday, “Historically, bottoms coincide with short-term holders having a lower cost basis than long-term holders.”

Have we bottomed?

Historically, bottoms coincide with short term holders having a lower cost basis than long term holders.

We are close, but not there yet. Some more time to burn IMO.

(In 2015 we did a final capitulation in this area, in 2019 it was the absolute bottom.) pic.twitter.com/vqiU8SqMDh

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) September 14, 2022

“We are close, but not there yet. Some more time to burn,” said the popular Bitcoin analyst.

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