Benzinga - by Murtuza Merchant, Benzinga Staff Writer.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer, the competition between former President Donald Trump and incumbent Joe Biden is intensifying, with current figures from the prediction market platform Polymarket showing Trump opening up a narrow lead.
Trump now holds a 51% chance of winning, while market participants put Biden’s chances at 42%.
Polymarket Forecasts a Close Race Two months ago, Polymarket, a Polygon-based (CRYPTO: MATIC) prediction platform, reported that Trump had a 52% chance of victory, compared to Biden's 33%. Since then, the stakes have increased significantly, with the total wager amount for the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market more than doubling from $51.04 million to $127.5 million by April 17. Biden had closed the gap to a tie of 45% for each candidate earlier this week before falling behind again.
Polymarket operates by allowing users to trade shares based on the predicted outcomes of future events, using the Polygon blockchain.
Despite the increased wagers and shifting odds, Trump remains the frontrunner, albeit with a narrower lead.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama, who has not declared her candidacy, has a 3% chance, while Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. lags with a 2% chance.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 1% likelihood of winning.
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Other Prediction Sites Reflect Tight Race Online prediction sites such as oddschecker.com and covers.com also reflect a tightly contested race.
According to covers.com, Trump holds a 52% chance of winning, with Biden at 4%.
Oddschecker.com places Trump slightly ahead as of April 17, 2024.
Historical Context and Upcoming Election The upcoming U.S. election, set for Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, marks the first rematch of presidential candidates since 1956, when Dwight D. Eisenhower faced Adlai Stevenson II.
If Trump wins, he would become the second president in U.S. history to serve nonconsecutive terms, following Grover Cleveland.
The evolving dynamics of the 2024 presidential race and its implications for the digital assets market will be a key topic at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
This event promises to provide valuable insights into how political developments may influence cryptocurrency markets and investment strategies.
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