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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: April 18 - 22

Published 17/04/2016, 13:42
© Reuters.  Crude falls ahead of producer meeting in Doha
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Investing.com - Oil prices fell sharply on Friday amid doubts that Sunday’s meeting of major suppliers in Doha, Qatar would result in an agreement to freeze output or that it will have a meaningful impact.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in May settled at $40.41 a barrel at the close, down 2.63% for the day, paring the week’s gains to 0.52%.

Global benchmark Brent settled down 1.67% at $43.11 a barrel, but ended up 2.79% for the week.

Talks in Doha between the leaders of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers are expected to result in a draft accord on freezing output in a bid to stabilize the global market.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have approved a deal to freeze output at January levels until October 1 and other producers are expected to also do so.

Crude oil prices have rallied more than 30% since the proposed freeze was first put forward in February.

But analysts have cautioned that freezing production near current levels is unlikely to reduce the global supply glut.

The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that a deal is likely to have a limited impact on global supply and markets are unlikely to rebalance before 2017.

Iran’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh was not attending the talks and has said Iran won’t participate in an output freeze until its output levels return to where they were before international sanctions were imposed.

Data on Wednesday showing a larger than expected increase in U.S. crude stockpiles also underlined oversupply concerns.

The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.6 million barrels in the latest week, bringing total crude stocks to a new record high of 536 million barrels.

Analysts had expected a storage build of 1.85 million barrels.

In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on the outcome of Sunday's meeting.

In addition, supply data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s weekly government report on stockpiles will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 18

New Zealand is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Canada is to report on foreign securities purchases.

Tuesday, April 19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

The U.S. is to release reports on building permits and housing starts.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is to speak at an event in New York.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to testify before the economic affairs committee in London.

Bank of Canada head Stephen Poloz is testify before the finance committee in Ottawa.

Wednesday, April 20

The U.K. is to publish its monthly employment report.

Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.

The U.S. is to report on existing home sales.

The EIA is to publish its weekly report on crude stockpiles.

Thursday, April 21

The U.K. is to release data on retail sales.

The European Central Bank is to announce its monetary policy decision. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, April 22

Markit is to publish its flash purchasing managers' index for the euro zone.

Canada is to round up the week with reports on inflation and retail sales.

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